"Vital" Statistics...

You'll recall I posted a summary of our chances of catching, and then dying from, the Chinese Killer Wuhan Coronavirus a few months back ("A Few Pandemic Factoids," August 20, 2020).  

In summary, I noted that our chances of catching it were about 1 in 1,000, and if caught, the chances of dying from it were about 1 in 1,000.  This was an intentional oversimplification, to be sure, as the actual statistics were pretty sketchy at the time, and presented in fractions.  However, I was pretty close back then, desiring to simply forestall any unnecessary fears my family and friends and neighbors might have gotten from the "MainStreamMedia" and a bunch of talking heads about this disease and what it portends.  And I still am...

I undertook this task because I have a some experience in virology and epidemiology, having spent more than 40 years in the medical field.  And thus, I felt I could wade through the statistics and allay any unfounded fears being proffered by some of the more liberal TV networks.  Yet, there are those who still harbor dangerously erroneous beliefs about the source of the Virus, and the contagion factors, and the chances of death if contracted.    

That stated, I had a conversation with a friend about the Virus over the weekend.  

He explained to me, with the professorial certitude borne of inaccurate data, that the Virus most assuredly came from folks eating bats in a Wuhan, China "wet" market.  Even though there are no bats such as these within 800 miles of Wuhan, China, and that there is no evidence proving such a claim.  And then he said that the Virus having come from a Wuhan lab has been "thoroughly debunked."  By whom, and when, he could not explain.  And also that this Stage IV Bioweapons Lab in Wuhan is the only one in China, and that we've known for years it's been researching this species of bat.  And lastly, he stated, our chances of dying from this Virus are a straight up 2%.  Why?  Because, he said, the most recent CDC statistics he's heard have told us that there are a total of 17,592,760 folks infected, and 315,260 have died.  Thus, he surmises, one can simply divide the former number by the latter, and...VOILA!...you get 2%!  

Of course, in reality the two numbers have no direct correlation to each other.  People in different age groups have different odds against contracting the Virus, and then dying from it.  There have so far been NO deaths in the 0.4 years old age group, anywhere in America.  And those over 90 have a 16% chance of dying if infected.  And people in the intervening age groups have remarkedly different - but escalating - chances of falling victim.   

Also, we know at least 39% of all Virus deaths so far have come from nursing homes and were perhaps preventable (could be as high as 50%!).  And that the vast majority of those nursing homes have been in New York, California, Washington and Arizona.  Remember when Governor Mario Cuomo ordered aged patients out of hospitals and back into nursing homes, chocked full of infected patients, just as the pandemic hit?  And that order resulted in more than 6,000 deaths?  Remember that?  No?  Your preferred news network fail to cover this?  Maybe you've been watching the wrong news networks...

And, we know that many of the deaths are from ailments where the Virus is but a co-morbidity, as opposed to the primary cause.  Such as having died from cancer, or diabetes, or from a stroke, but also while infected with the Virus.  It may be that when so many are dying so fast, it's just easier to blame the pandemic, even if it's not the primary cause of death.  Especially if the Government pays more via Medicare/caid for a death caused by the Virus (!).  One such example involved a motorcycle accident victim in Florida.  Yep, his death certificate blamed the Virus.  In any event, we will never know for sure.  

Thus, we can state with some degree of certainty that up to half of the reported deaths from the Virus, may be bogus!

But we do know for sure that the CDC's most recent guidance statistics tell us that the blended average projected death rate from the Virus is now 0.26%. (USA Today, December 20, 2020).  Or, as they summarize, we have "a 0.2% chance of dying from the Coronavirus"   In other words, I was wrong back then; it wasn't "1 in 1,000."  It was "2 in 1,000."  Not 2%, 0.2%.  Or, ten times less than my friend believes.  

Now, I'm not here to try and talk somebody out of being afraid of this Virus; they should be.  I am.  Especially because I'm in the most susceptible age group.  But I wished - and still wish - to allay any unnecessary fears the uninitiated might have.  If one does takes the basic steps to stay safe, ala hand washing, and mask wearing, and staying not 5' 11" inches from each other, but a full six feet (ahem!), then you'll likely remain safe.

And be sure to leave the bar by 10:00 p.m.  The Virus only attacks folks in bars after 10:00 p.m... 

And in that vein I'd like to suggest that everyone everywhere obtain their news and information from a variety of sources.  Simply listening to one or two liberal news channels doesn't get it, especially since most are.  You just might find out that what you know to be true absolutely...is absolutely...false.  

I'm reminded of one of ex-Prez Ronald Reagan's favorite sayings:  

"It isn't so much that Liberals are ignorant.  It's just that so many things they think they know aren't so."